Enterprise Name: CHENGDA MODEL SET
Contact person: Business Department
Mobile phone: 198-5734-5006
Address: 39 Success Road, Jiashan Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province
Websit : en.chengda-mould.com
According to calculation, the price of precise cold forging for valve group of single passenger car is 12.96 yuan, and 145.28 yuan for precise cold forging for valve transmission group of single passenger car. We estimate that the market scale of precise cold forgings for passenger car valves in China and Europe will be 661/802 million yuan in 2016/2020, while the income of precise cold forgings for valves in 2016 will be only 970 million yuan, which has a large market space at home and abroad. We believe that with the company's active development of new customers in the new market, the company's traditional precision cold forging business is expected to achieve rapid growth in the future.
We expect that in 2016/2020, the domestic and European markets of precision cold forgings for passenger car valve drive units will be 7.408 billion yuan/8.899 billion yuan, respectively, while in 2016, the company's precise cold forgings for valve drive units will earn only 0.56 billion yuan, with huge market space. We believe that with the increasing volume of North-South Volkswagen and BYD, and the active development of new customers'new market (which has been qualified by German Volkswagen for the fixed-point supply of hydraulic tappet project in European market), the precise cold forging business of the company's valve transmission group is expected to maintain high growth rate and continue to become the highlight of the company's growth. At the same time, the follow-up production and release of capacity will also provide support for the growth of the company's main industries.
In the long run, the company is actively developing new projects. At the same time, it plans to continue to develop automobiles (including new energy vehicles), motorcycles, electric tools, household appliances, aerospace and military industries in the future. The potential market development space deserves further expectations.
We expect to achieve business income of 229/329/471 million yuan in 2017-19, an increase of 44% over the same period last year. 84/43.51/43.22%; net returns of returned mothers were 0.82/116/164 million yuan, up 47.59/41.45/41.94% year on year, corresponding to EPS of 1.36/1.93/2.74 yuan/share, dynamic PE of 62 times in 2017, giving the "overweight" rating for the first time.
Mold manufacturer's risk hints: automobile industry prosperity is lower than expected; raw material price rises more than expected; period cost growth is higher than expected; new customer project development progress is lower than expected.